If someone came to me and asked if they should make a prediction about the future of the publishing industry in a blog for all to see, I would tell them, in a word, “No.” I’m going to ignore my own advice.

I predict that 2012 will go down in history as the year of the ebook. There. I did it.

Here’s what I mean. I think that in publishing circles, 2012 will be marked as the beginning of the end of mass-market paperback, trade paperback, and hardcover formats. Am I predicting the end of physical books altogether? No. There will always be a place for books. But when it comes to fiction and most types of non-fiction, I think 2012 will mark the beginning of the end.

Why? Well, a lot happened in 2011 that will set the stage for 2012:

First, I think that the 2011 Christmas season, above all previous Christmas seasons, ereaders of all types are going to be in millions of stockings. 2011 was the year ereaders reached that magic price point at which more dubious consumers made the plunge. All of those millions of ereaders are going to sell millions of ebooks over the course of next year. That means that tree-book sales will drop. I believe that’s a trend that will continue.

Second, regular consumers (not just geeky types) are talking about and using ereaders. While out and about hawking my debut this year, I saw first hand the number of customers clamoring for the then new Nook Simple Touch (B&N beat Amazon to market with the first touchscreen reader), now selling for about $100. That’s not all. While signing books in book stores, I was approached by several people who bought my book on the spot . . . for the ereaders they’d brought with them into the store.

Third, Amazon is a powerhouse in the publishing industry (for better or worse). In 2011, that powerhouse began selling more ebooks than tree-books. Enough said.

Fourth, in 2011, for the first time ever, a self-published author sold one million ebooks. And he’s not alone.

Finally, although I’m not selling books like your average Stephen King, my own book sales in 2011 definitely reflect the inevitable shift towards the ebook.

Do I write all this gleefully? No. My favorite way to read a book is in the mass-market paperback format. There’s something about the smell of the paper and the feel of the thing in my hands that I love. I’m sure I’m not alone. But, as my father pointed out to me recently, when people started writing on papyrus, there was no doubt a whole lot of hand-wringing and heated discussion about how much better it was to read on stone. Good point, Pop.